0x393Ab114FAfE84aA55F24f5FEFa9B3c4D1ac4623-1772347953607

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $43.78
Potential payout: $355.93
Potential profit: $312.15
Multiplier: 8.13x
User PnL: $33.78

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $296.15
Potential profit: $296.15
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 13.1%
Current value: $23.16
Potential payout: $177.47
Potential profit: $154.31
Multiplier: 7.66x
User PnL: $3.16

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $7.62
Potential payout: $171.24
Potential profit: $163.62
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$2.38

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $6.84
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $98.42
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$13.16

Yes position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $17.33
Potential payout: $105.05
Potential profit: $87.71
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$9.56

Yes position

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $94.55
Potential profit: $94.55
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $5.24
Potential payout: $87.3
Potential profit: $82.06
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$4.76

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.18
Potential profit: $59.18
User PnL: -$29.53

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $54.74
Potential payout: $56.82
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $4.74

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $4.83
Potential payout: $50.85
Potential profit: $46.02
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$25.17

Yes position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.62
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $1.56
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $35.48
Multiplier: 23.81x
User PnL: -$8.44

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $3.93
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $31.79
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$6.07

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $25.77
Potential profit: $22.29
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$11.21

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.64
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $19.24
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: -$4.25

No position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $23.26
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $10.2
Potential payout: $10.4
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $5.97
Potential payout: $10.2
Potential profit: $4.23
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $5.6
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.41

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.67

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.03

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34

Yes position

Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

No position

U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.93

No position

US civil war before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.26

No position

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Israel position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the US strike Mexico next?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the US strike Yemen next?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?