golden-fox

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $12.86
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $272.85
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $1.59

Yes position

Obama arrested before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $273.97
Potential profit: $263.97
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $266.66
Potential profit: $256.66
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $10.25
Potential payout: $253.16
Potential profit: $242.91
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $7.67
Potential payout: $222.22
Potential profit: $214.55
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $9.78
Potential payout: $219.78
Potential profit: $210
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$1.21

Yes position

Stripe IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $9.12
Potential payout: $219.78
Potential profit: $210.66
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$1.87

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $215.05
Potential profit: $205.05
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $206.18
Potential profit: $196.18
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $190
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $11.82
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $169.99
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $171.81
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $171.81
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $171.81
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $10.91
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $170.9
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $171.81
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $171.81
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $181.81
Potential profit: $171.81
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $9.57
Potential payout: $170.94
Potential profit: $161.37
Multiplier: 17.86x
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $168.06
Potential profit: $158.06
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $4.44
Potential payout: $158.73
Potential profit: $154.29
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $6.09
Potential payout: $158.08
Potential profit: $151.99
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$1.19

Yes position

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $8.34
Potential payout: $151.56
Potential profit: $143.22
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $9.41
Potential payout: $147.05
Potential profit: $137.64
Multiplier: 15.63x
User PnL: -$0.88

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 30.9%
Multiplier: 3.24x
User PnL: $9.23

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $4.71

Yes position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: $3.81

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $3.48

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $3.08

Yes position

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 40%
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $1.45

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 24.6%
Multiplier: 4.07x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?

Ends Nov 4, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the UT-03 House seat?

Ends Nov 4, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?