tahmkenchbaby

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.81K
Potential profit: $10.81K
User PnL: -$120.99

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.9%
Current value: $519.88
Potential payout: $2.62K
Potential profit: $2.1K
Multiplier: 5.04x
User PnL: $19.88

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $297.81
Potential payout: $2.43K
Potential profit: $2.13K
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$202.19

No position

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $1.85K
User PnL: -$167

No position

Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.71K
Potential profit: $1.71K
User PnL: -$705.48

No position

Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $1.65K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $70.7
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$39.3

Yes position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$5

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $568.45
Potential profit: $568.45
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $522.55
Potential profit: $522.55
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $472.33
Potential payout: $499.82
Potential profit: $27.49
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $72.33

Yes position

Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $491.63
Potential profit: $491.63
User PnL: -$393.01

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $6.99
Potential payout: $466.07
Potential profit: $459.08
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$143.01

No position

Will Trump say "Maduro" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400.12
Potential profit: $400.12
User PnL: -$52

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$284

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $349.71
Potential payout: $399.67
Potential profit: $49.96
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $29.76

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $357.14
Potential profit: $357.14
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $322.58
Potential profit: $322.58
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $293.75
Potential profit: $293.75
User PnL: -$47

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $17.36
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $260.42
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$2.64

Yes position

Will the US strike Syria next?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255.61
Potential profit: $255.61
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $239.72
Potential profit: $239.72
User PnL: -$90

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $352.47

No position

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $332.89

No position

Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.23

No position

Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.94

No position

Will Trump say "Putin" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.61

No position

Will Trump say "President Xi" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.42

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.17

No position

Will Trump say "Monroe" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.77

No position

Will Trump say "Zelenskyy" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.79

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.7

No position

Will Trump say "Lincoln" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.41

No position

Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.31

Yes position

Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.35

No position

Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.4

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.89

No position

Don Lemon charges dropped?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.41

No position

Will Trump say "Kash" or "Patel" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.13

No position

Will Erika Kirk attend Super Bowl LX?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.36

No position

Will Trump say "Powell" or "Too Late" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.26

No position

Will Italy join the Board of Peace?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.74

No position

Will Trump say "Hegseth" during the State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.29

No position

Will Germany join the Board of Peace?