Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $92.5
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$32.5
Polymarket Trader
MRConservativeMan
0x39fa4e4700895ef55adb7e6bf0150721d25a3993
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.5
- Realized PnL
- $231.79
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
AP calls NYC Mayoral primary before 2 AM?
Ends Jun 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.51
- Potential profit
- $31.51
- User PnL
- -$10.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "moderator" during his Nevada rally?
Ends Sep 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.88
Yes position
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.08
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.93
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.26
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
Yes position
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.56
Yes position
Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.69
No position
Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.49
No position
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.4
No position
Will Trump say "World War 3" at his Arizona speech?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.87
Yes position
Will Trump say "border czar" at debate?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
No position
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.92
Yes position
Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.61
Yes position
Will Trump say "trans" during his Nevada rally?
Ends Sep 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.99
Yes position
Will Trump say "Orbán" at his Arizona speech?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.75
Yes position
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his Nevada rally?
Ends Sep 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45
Yes position
Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Nevada rally?
Ends Sep 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.42
Yes position
Will Kamala say "weird" or "weirdo" at debate?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Yes position
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.1
Yes position
Will Trump say "Springfield" during his Nevada rally?
Ends Sep 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14
Yes position
Will Trump say "MAGA" at his Arizona speech?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.92
No position
Will Trump say "beach" at his Arizona speech?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
Yes position
Will Kamala say "JD" or "Vance" at debate?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 40% 100 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No 60% 40 shares
- AP calls NYC Mayoral primary before 2 AM?Yes 49.8% 5.22 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes 5.1% 3.96 shares
- Another US military action against Iran by June 30?Yes 8.4% 5.55 shares
- Another US military action against Iran by Wednesday?Yes 1.1% 66.66 shares
- AP calls NYC Mayoral primary before 2 AM?Yes 30.4% 26.29 shares
- Another US military action against Iran by Wednesday?Yes 1.5% 66.67 shares
- Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Yes 43% 101.63 shares
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Yes 56.2% 76.92 shares
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Yes 57.2% 76.92 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?Yes 41% 108.5 shares