Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $305.35
- Potential payout
- $399.15
- Potential profit
- $93.8
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $81.83
Polymarket Trader
Toseki
0x3a080798305abfc5115c4acac3b1059d683966e0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $713.1
- Realized PnL
- $462.16
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $211.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $88.5
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $82.5
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $196.25
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $53.75
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $32.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.49
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- $88.78
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.3
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60.2
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.28
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.68
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.55
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $19
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.89
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.36
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.88
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.54
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18.33
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$45.9
No position
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$49.29
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Yes 25.4% 333.43 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Yes 68% 99.99 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes 56% 361.59 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No 63% 100 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No 67% 150 shares
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No 78% 7.32 shares
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No 89% 100 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Yes 31.1% 400 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 0.5% 140 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 29% 40 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?Yes 0.5% 404.99 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 34.7% 329.99 shares