Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $22.61
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $2.39
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.59
Polymarket Trader
silverstud
0x3a43a18ee531358ed5db671cf1223634313b67dc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $143.86
- Realized PnL
- $718.81
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.9%
- Current value
- $11.46
- Potential payout
- $22.5
- Potential profit
- $11.04
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.1%
- Current value
- $8.58
- Potential payout
- $17.5
- Potential profit
- $8.92
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $10.32
- Potential payout
- $15.75
- Potential profit
- $5.44
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $1.12
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 41%
- Current value
- $6.36
- Potential payout
- $15.52
- Potential profit
- $9.16
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.6%
- Current value
- $1.43
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.57
- Multiplier
- 10.47x
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.33
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$1.58
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $5.17
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $9.83
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.95
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $13.95
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $1.05
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $1.8
- Potential payout
- $13.87
- Potential profit
- $12.07
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $12.52
- Potential payout
- $13.2
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $5.56
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $6.94
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$1.29
No position
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55%
- Current value
- $6.19
- Potential payout
- $11.25
- Potential profit
- $5.06
- Multiplier
- 1.82x
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $11.07
- Potential profit
- $10.52
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $9.6
- Potential payout
- $10.1
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.48
N
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $4.35
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $5.65
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.8%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.03
- Multiplier
- 10.26x
- User PnL
- -$6.68
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.45
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $2.35
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.65
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.15
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.85
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$7.85
N
No position
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $9.2
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $5.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4.45
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.1
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $191.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $76.67
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.86
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $54.12
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.63
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.64
No position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.55
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- $23.18
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.5
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $18.59
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.27
No position
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.03
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $15.56
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.52
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.45
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.16
Y
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- $11.6
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.1
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Multiplier
- 29.41x
- User PnL
- $10.05
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.95
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $8.82
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- $8.1
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $7.74
Yes position
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $7.22
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 3.7% 10 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 2.1% 5 shares
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Yes 88% 5 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 86.4% 1.4 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 4.9% 5.01 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 39% 13.76 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 33% 5 shares
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?Yes 10% 5 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 77% 5.7 shares