No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.47K
- Potential profit
- $6.47K
- User PnL
- -$3.35K
Polymarket Trader
FishermansFiend
0x3a591e337729dd9f891f6d94ba77d01c3a626c6f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.31K
- Realized PnL
- $4.46K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $2.03K
- Potential payout
- $4.45K
- Potential profit
- $2.43K
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$61.9
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $1.67K
- Potential payout
- $4.35K
- Potential profit
- $2.67K
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$1.37K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.08K
- Potential profit
- $3.08K
- User PnL
- -$1.1K
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $811.75
- Potential payout
- $2.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$601.21
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- User PnL
- -$628.03
N
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $133.28
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$362.87
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $506.92
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $792.87
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- -$262.12
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $871.18
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $314.1
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $123.59
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $895.46
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $151.86
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $60.9
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $840
- Potential payout
- $971.1
- Potential profit
- $131.1
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $84.15
N
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $532.25
- Potential payout
- $851.6
- Potential profit
- $319.35
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$50.22
Y
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $119.65
- Potential payout
- $797.69
- Potential profit
- $678.04
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$139.38
N
No position
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $487.23
- Potential payout
- $580.03
- Potential profit
- $92.81
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $11.98
N
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $421.8
- Potential payout
- $566.18
- Potential profit
- $144.38
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$17.53
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $5.53
- Potential payout
- $526.32
- Potential profit
- $520.79
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$4.47
N
No position
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $386.6
- Potential payout
- $525.99
- Potential profit
- $139.39
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$72.43
N
No position
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.8%
- Current value
- $373.09
- Potential payout
- $512.84
- Potential profit
- $139.75
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- -$85.95
N
No position
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $447.92
- Potential payout
- $506.13
- Potential profit
- $58.2
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$11.12
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $403.5
- Potential payout
- $469.19
- Potential profit
- $65.69
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.14
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $386.91
- Potential payout
- $444.72
- Potential profit
- $57.81
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $11.73
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $255.46
- Potential payout
- $408.74
- Potential profit
- $153.28
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $6.13
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $365.42
- Potential payout
- $399.36
- Potential profit
- $33.95
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$8.79
No position
US x China Military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $366.95
- Potential payout
- $398.86
- Potential profit
- $31.91
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$7.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $410.88
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $327.02
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $262.61
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $257.97
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.25
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $186.55
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.29
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.82
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.49
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.8
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.28
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.68
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25%
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- $76.21
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.89
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $73.53
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.49
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.82
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.47
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.67
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $27.64
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.93
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?No 45.1% 552.02 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 53% 470.43 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 46% 542.02 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 61% 408.74 shares
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No 90.7% 54.97 shares
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No 77.9% 64.01 shares
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No 77.5% 64.31 shares
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No 82% 60.8 shares
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes 21.9% 227.96 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 56.9% 109.53 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 42% 148.4 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 11.9% 523.79 shares