Polymarket Trader

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $758.73K
Realized PnL: $215.29K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.6%
Current value: $105.13K
Potential payout: $153.26K
Potential profit: $48.12K
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$6.3K

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $130.04K
Potential payout: $130.5K
Potential profit: $456.75
User PnL: $1.97K

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $129.68K
Potential payout: $130K
Potential profit: $325
User PnL: $225.81

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.54K
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $97.46K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $14.76K
Potential payout: $80K
Potential profit: $65.24K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $1.2K

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $8.36K
Potential payout: $80K
Potential profit: $71.64K
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: -$720

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $5.32K
Potential payout: $80K
Potential profit: $74.68K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$1.43K

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $8.76K
Potential payout: $80K
Potential profit: $71.24K
Multiplier: 9.13x
User PnL: $1.66K

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.4%
Current value: $10.68K
Potential payout: $80K
Potential profit: $69.32K
Multiplier: 7.49x
User PnL: -$2.33K

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $1.98K
Potential payout: $64.77K
Potential profit: $62.79K
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$330.06

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $5.83K
Potential payout: $51.63K
Potential profit: $45.8K
Multiplier: 8.85x
User PnL: $982.72

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $20.69K
Potential payout: $49.86K
Potential profit: $29.17K
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $362.5

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $47.04K
Potential payout: $48.97K
Potential profit: $1.93K
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$191.38

No position

Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $43.38K
Potential payout: $45K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$556.78

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $36.75K
Potential payout: $42K
Potential profit: $5.25K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $10.27K

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $31.07K
Potential payout: $33K
Potential profit: $1.93K
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.8K

No position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $26.83K
Potential payout: $28.69K
Potential profit: $1.87K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.6K

No position

Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $22.58K
Potential payout: $24.02K
Potential profit: $1.44K
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.66K

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $23.83K
Potential payout: $23.95K
Potential profit: $119.76
User PnL: $291.51

No position

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $22.76K
Potential payout: $23.42K
Potential profit: $655.77
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $316.78

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $19.95K
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: $950

No position

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $13.12K
Potential payout: $18.75K
Potential profit: $5.62K
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$615.58

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $15.94K
Potential payout: $16K
Potential profit: $64
User PnL: $362.02

No position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $11.7K
Potential payout: $14.91K
Potential profit: $3.21K
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$860.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.67K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.87K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.72K

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.42K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.94K

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.77K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.87K

No position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.7K

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38K

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.2K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.09K

No position

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.93K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.63K

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.47K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.03K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.88K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.65K

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.37K

Yes position

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.31K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.15K

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.95K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $3.75K

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.74K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 29.9% 8,000 shares
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Yes 16% 1,700 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 29% 4,000 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 96.5% 566.12 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 37% 1,000 shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 69.9% 2,000 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 2.8% 20,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 16% 16,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 17% 2,997.97 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 2.8% 2,518.07 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

No 84% 2,000 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 36% 2,000 shares