Polymarket Trader

heyeveryone

0x3b6e6f78b0c2961f6ea08dd1af0d274c55a59f9c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $38.49
Realized PnL: $422.24
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $320
User PnL: -$111.2

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $242.1
Potential profit: $242.1
User PnL: -$149.1

Yes position

Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $60.67
Potential profit: $60.33
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$23.93

No position

Will OpenAI's public ticker be $LLM?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $25.64
Potential payout: $26.67
Potential profit: $1.03
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $4.31

Yes position

Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$5.4

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $9.2
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.8
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $4.1

Yes position

Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.49
Potential profit: $5.49
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 58.6%
Current value: $2.93
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $2.3
Potential profit: $2.01
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.2

No position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.01

No position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $31

No position

Will the NYT front page headlines say "Federal Reserve" this week?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.5

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $29.6

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.8

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

No position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.46

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.4

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.88

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.5

No position

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events in Rockland County?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.6

No position

Will "Middle East" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.2

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.6

No position

Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will "China" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.41

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.39

Yes position

Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.9

No position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.6

Yes position

Will Dell say "PowerStore" during earnings call?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

No position

Will NVIDIA say "Open Source" during their next earnings call?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

FDA approves MannKind's Afrezza?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.4

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Yes 96.2% 277 shares
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+?

Yes 27% 20 shares
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?

Yes 61.6% 242.1 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?

Yes 11% 80 shares
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?

Yes 4.2% 87.6 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?

No 89% 60 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?

Yes 28.9% 214 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

No 62.2% 200 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?

No 81.6% 195 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?

No 76% 5 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

No 50% 190 shares
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

No 50% 10 shares