Yes position
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67K
- Potential profit
- $16.67K
- User PnL
- -$50
Polymarket Trader
Marvin1
0x3b79d44d577fca21cffb44ccc718042f9ef5ac82
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $164.35
- Realized PnL
- $1.87K
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.81K
- Potential profit
- $4.81K
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.95K
- Potential profit
- $2.95K
- User PnL
- -$587.66
No position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $164.35
- Potential payout
- $258.81
- Potential profit
- $94.47
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $5.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $444.07
No position
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $443.43
No position
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.59
No position
Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.29
No position
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.2
No position
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.65
No position
Iran military response before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.11
No position
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $64
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.84
No position
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.7
No position
Will Brazil unban X before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.15
No position
Israel military response against Iran today?
Ends Oct 1, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.86
No position
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.44
Yes position
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.06
No position
Iran military response by Friday?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
No position
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.71
Yes position
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.09
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.86
No position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.9
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$3.81
No position
Iran Nuke in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$3.92
No position
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.81
No position
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No 61.6% 258.81 shares
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Yes 76.7% 162.21 shares
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No 81.5% 152.61 shares
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No 84% 152.61 shares
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?No 1.6% 8,011.57 shares
- Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?No 7% 8,011.57 shares
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Yes 60% 1,087.38 shares
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Yes 63% 1,087.38 shares
- Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?No 99.6% 687.8 shares
- Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?No 75% 687.8 shares
- Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No 99.9% 2,777.77 shares
- Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes 91% 1,780.19 shares