Yes position
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $398.2
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- User PnL
- $1.4
Polymarket Trader
GeoAlpha1
0x3b80c66a6ef3ea1ac20814d9e5aa940e5337047b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.94K
- Realized PnL
- $924.06
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $290.46
- Potential payout
- $297.76
- Potential profit
- $7.3
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.18
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $200.3
- Potential payout
- $201
- Potential profit
- $0.7
- User PnL
- $1.48
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.2%
- Current value
- $40.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $159.7
- Multiplier
- 4.96x
- User PnL
- -$59.7
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.9%
- Current value
- $159.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $40.3
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $59.7
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $135.76
- Potential payout
- $150.01
- Potential profit
- $14.25
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $7.94
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $76.13
- Potential payout
- $105.01
- Potential profit
- $28.88
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $5.78
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 14.6%
- Current value
- $14.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $85.45
- Multiplier
- 6.87x
- User PnL
- -$35.45
Yes position
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $99.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $99.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $99.6
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.4
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $85.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $14.55
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $35.45
No position
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $81.96
- Potential payout
- $82
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $1.11
No position
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $56.7
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $3.3
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.15
No position
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $49.36
- Potential payout
- $51.93
- Potential profit
- $2.57
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$2.05
N
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $19.09
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.91
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.29
No position
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $9.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $9.6
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.4
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.54
Yes position
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $4.73
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $4.9
- Potential payout
- $4.99
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.67
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.58
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.72
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.55
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.38
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.8
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.65
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.6
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.96
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.35
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 26, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.46
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.32
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.93
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.92
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.12
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.97
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.52
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.06
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.62
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.63
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.24
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No 98.9% 97.76 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 99.9% 200 shares
- Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No 96.3% 200 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 99.9% 200 shares
- Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?No 99% 41.93 shares
- Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?No 98.6% 82 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 98.9% 200 shares
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Yes 99% 100 shares
- Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?Yes 98.9% 200 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?No 99.4% 100 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 85% 91.39 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 67% 200 shares