Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $45.38
- Potential payout
- $275
- Potential profit
- $229.63
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $12.38
Polymarket Trader
ptrn
0x3c173fe7d2e2511d3e5cd6049c615982575906ad
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $187.31
- Realized PnL
- $1.25K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $220
- Potential profit
- $220
- User PnL
- -$50.6
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$49.2
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $198.1
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$48.1
Yes position
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $180
- User PnL
- -$50.4
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $16.91
- Potential payout
- $147.06
- Potential profit
- $130.15
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$83.09
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $144.93
- Potential profit
- $144.93
- User PnL
- -$99.98
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $34.3
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $105.7
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128.21
- Potential profit
- $128.21
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $44.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $55.5
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
Alex Pereira position
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.36
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $89.64
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$50.04
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.65
- Potential profit
- $80.65
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $4.33
- Potential payout
- $78.69
- Potential profit
- $74.36
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$28.67
Yes position
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $76.98
- Potential profit
- $76.98
- User PnL
- -$33
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $76
- Potential profit
- $76
- User PnL
- -$50.16
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $75
- User PnL
- -$49.5
No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $39.64
- Potential payout
- $67.76
- Potential profit
- $28.12
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $6.64
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.26
- Potential profit
- $43.26
- User PnL
- -$26.52
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Sean Strickland position
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.78
Yes position
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.9
No position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.75
Yes position
Biden drops out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.21
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.4
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.01
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.7
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.73
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.76
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43
No position
Will US sell Silk Road BTC before election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.39
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.6
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.9
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.68
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.36
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.43
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.9
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.07
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.8
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 48.7% 67.76 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 30% 110 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 41.9% 78.69 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes 12% 275 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?No 96.6% 61.6 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 39% 150 shares
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes 99.9% 100 shares
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?Yes 5% 100 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Alex Pereira 50% 100 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 39% 192.3 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 75% 120 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 38% 156 shares