Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $60.03
- Potential payout
- $307.83
- Potential profit
- $247.81
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $11.17
Polymarket Trader
anonoa
0x3c44552ad4c9e58c3b9efaa9d59a1992680c2fff
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $356.05
- Realized PnL
- $1.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.1%
- Current value
- $39.43
- Potential payout
- $302.13
- Potential profit
- $262.7
- Multiplier
- 7.66x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $35.06
- Potential payout
- $91.06
- Potential profit
- $56
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$17.87
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $9.33
- Potential payout
- $77.77
- Potential profit
- $68.44
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$10.89
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $15.8
- Potential payout
- $64.49
- Potential profit
- $48.69
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$21.06
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $25.32
- Potential payout
- $59.58
- Potential profit
- $34.26
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $6.84
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $27.71
- Potential payout
- $50.84
- Potential profit
- $23.13
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $31.84
- Potential payout
- $42.73
- Potential profit
- $10.9
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $8.42
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $10.1
- Potential payout
- $41.24
- Potential profit
- $31.14
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.14
- Potential payout
- $38.86
- Potential profit
- $36.73
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$4.31
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $13.32
- Potential payout
- $38.63
- Potential profit
- $25.31
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $5.89
Yes position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $11.3
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $25.74
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $4.31
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $34.95
- Potential profit
- $34.3
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$5.25
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $32.13
- Potential payout
- $34.74
- Potential profit
- $2.61
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $5.84
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.61
- Potential payout
- $29.9
- Potential profit
- $29.29
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$5.37
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $6.05
- Potential payout
- $23.73
- Potential profit
- $17.68
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Y
Yes position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $1.23
- Potential payout
- $19.35
- Potential profit
- $18.12
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $4.47
- Potential payout
- $12.76
- Potential profit
- $8.3
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $12.55
- Potential profit
- $7.59
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $3.58
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $4.05
- Potential payout
- $12.1
- Potential profit
- $8.05
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $2.84
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $11.96
- Potential profit
- $11.42
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $2.72
- Potential payout
- $11.57
- Potential profit
- $8.85
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $1.1
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $9.26
- Potential payout
- $10.46
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.73
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.7%
- Current value
- $8.02
- Potential payout
- $9.59
- Potential profit
- $1.57
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $4.59
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.26
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.09
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99
Yes position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.5
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.29
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.47
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.58
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.33
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.22
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.32
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.29
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.44
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.57
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.01
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.82
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.33
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.72
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.69
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.6
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.87
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?No 26.1% 4.44 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 25% 41.24 shares
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?Yes 10.5% 19.35 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Yes 8.5% 35.06 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Yes 9.2% 30.65 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 4.9% 0.59 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes 35.6% 5.31 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes 36% 4.28 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 1.3% 0.63 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 5.1% 0.01 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 5.1% 0.08 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 5.1% 0.06 shares