No position
Ukraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $455.88
- Potential profit
- $455.88
- User PnL
- -$5.63
Polymarket Trader
0x3c6b...c641
0x3c6bf734a2cdb52debb1d50a43299e1bf0d8c641
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $176.54
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $217.24
- Potential profit
- $217.24
- User PnL
- -$17.79
Yes position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125.54
- Potential profit
- $125.54
- User PnL
- -$2.01
Yes position
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.99
- Potential profit
- $104.99
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.93
- Potential profit
- $90.93
- User PnL
- $0
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
Ends Dec 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44.83
- Potential profit
- $44.83
- User PnL
- -$2.69
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.07
- Potential profit
- $36.07
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.22
- Potential profit
- $24.22
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.01
- Potential profit
- $22.01
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Sudan civil war ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.29
- Potential profit
- $20.29
- User PnL
- -$2.03
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.55
- Potential profit
- $18.55
- User PnL
- $0
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Ends Dec 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.36
- Potential profit
- $18.36
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.03
- Potential profit
- $16.03
- User PnL
- $0
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Ends Dec 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.14
- Potential profit
- $13.14
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Nov 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.65
- Potential profit
- $10.65
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- $0
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
Ends Dec 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.68
- Potential profit
- $8.68
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.43
- Potential profit
- $8.43
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Ends Nov 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.25
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.21
- Potential profit
- $6.21
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
Ends Dec 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.94
- Potential profit
- $5.94
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Ends Nov 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $4
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Ends Nov 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.63
- Potential profit
- $3.63
- User PnL
- $0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.37
Yes position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.48
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.58
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Yemen by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.54
Yes position
US strike on Syria by December 19?
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.1
No position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.96
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.82
No position
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.64
No position
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.51
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.19
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.94
Yes position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $3.76
No position
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.6
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.46
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
No position
Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06
No position
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87
No position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.74
No position
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.29
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?
Ends Jan 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Yes 8% 11.96 shares
- Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?No 11.8% 16.4 shares
- U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?Yes 27% 52.75 shares
- U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 38% 14.73 shares
- US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?Yes 28% 10.05 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?No 39.8% 38.65 shares
- U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?Yes 28% 8.56 shares
- US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?Yes 28% 3.55 shares
- U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 38% 9.27 shares
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes 9.5% 14.92 shares
- Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?No 28% 11.75 shares
- Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Yes 8% 7.03 shares