Polymarket Trader

Vilgefortz

0x3c918a8ef8c379304f744592120cbb4d76149af7

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $277.6K
Realized PnL: $403.25K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $95.15K
Potential payout: $110K
Potential profit: $14.85K
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $14.83K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $95.68K
Potential payout: $96.5K
Potential profit: $820.25
User PnL: $8.28K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $33.48K
Potential payout: $33.5K
Potential profit: $16.75
User PnL: $1.44K

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $21K
Potential payout: $24K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $810.05

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $14.52K
Potential payout: $14.6K
Potential profit: $80.3
User PnL: $647.39

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $11.94K
Potential payout: $13.05K
Potential profit: $1.11K
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $65.27

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $2.71K
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $2.09K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $101.52

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $1.15K
Potential payout: $3.1K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: -$155.15

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $385.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.61K
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $94.5

Yes position

Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $920
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $80
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $220

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $562.28
Potential payout: $690
Potential profit: $127.72
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $84.56

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.9%
Current value: $95.4
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $304.6
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: $16.63

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.74K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?

Ends Sep 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.99K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.53K

No position

Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.6K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.2K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.33K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.27K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.22K

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.56K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.79K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.27K

Yes position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.82K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.51K

Yes position

Fed rate cut in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.54K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.45K

Yes position

Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.31K

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.04K

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.93K

No position

Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.95K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.44K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.44K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.3K

No position

Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.27K

No position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.76K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

No 84% 641.02 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 9.7% 1,000 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 9.7% 1,000 shares
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.4% 58,000 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 9.7% 1,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

No 99.6% 100 shares
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.8% 26,000 shares
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Yes 35% 470 shares
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Yes 34.9% 60 shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Yes 55% 200 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

No 99.7% 100 shares
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Yes 37.8% 50 shares