No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $4.03K
- Potential payout
- $4.23K
- Potential profit
- $207.43
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $232.76
Polymarket Trader
FortunatelyFestive
0x3cafe19c407342bc7cea21424e861c37038c6d8a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $27.15K
- Realized PnL
- $40.43K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $2.64K
- Potential payout
- $2.67K
- Potential profit
- $36.07
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $135.76
No position
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $2.55K
- Potential payout
- $2.57K
- Potential profit
- $21.82
- User PnL
- $22.36
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $1.95K
- Potential payout
- $2.18K
- Potential profit
- $229.13
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $223.05
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.86K
- Potential payout
- $2.15K
- Potential profit
- $290.91
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$16.04
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.87K
- Potential payout
- $2.04K
- Potential profit
- $174.6
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$48.18
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.67K
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $115.94
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $145.17
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $1.4K
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $237.29
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$8.18
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $1.41K
- Potential payout
- $1.51K
- Potential profit
- $101.73
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $142.01
No position
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $1.12K
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $97.52
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $24.38
Yes position
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $840.95
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $352.74
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $333.1
No position
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $1.11K
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $51.87
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $113.85
Yes position
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.7%
- Current value
- $163.24
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $947.22
- Multiplier
- 6.80x
- User PnL
- -$363.04
No position
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $1.04K
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $51.34
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $41.04
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$783.51
No position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $360.01
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $683.79
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$169.14
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $929.34
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $97.56
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $39.34
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $28.59
- Potential payout
- $828.69
- Potential profit
- $800.1
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$281.41
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $3.53
- Potential payout
- $783.76
- Potential profit
- $780.23
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$56.47
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $692.4
- Potential payout
- $695.53
- Potential profit
- $3.13
- User PnL
- $34.16
No position
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $610.77
- Potential payout
- $653.23
- Potential profit
- $42.46
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $2.77
Yes position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $609.16
- Potential profit
- $609.16
- User PnL
- -$450.01
No position
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $338.05
- Potential payout
- $568.15
- Potential profit
- $230.1
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$9.25
No position
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $547.65
- Potential payout
- $550.13
- Potential profit
- $2.48
- User PnL
- $17.43
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.45K
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.64K
No position
Xi Jinping out before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $326.82
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $301.31
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $277
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $239.17
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.89
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.69
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.18
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $155.2
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.18
No position
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.08
Yes position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.05
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.91
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.09
No position
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.55
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.31
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.27
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.9
No position
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.94
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.66
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $62.07
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No 88% 1,340.91 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 86.2% 297.47 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 98.7% 1,013.29 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 12.6% 7,916.96 shares
- Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?No 99.3% 2,148.34 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?No 99.3% 3,634.13 shares
- Trump out as President by June 30?No 99.4% 609.77 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 40.2% 137.76 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 70% 137.76 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No 86% 813.95 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 71% 275.52 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 52.4% 280.69 shares