Polymarket Trader

okada

0x3cb1a3631e49257e311d40051066ab074c765e96

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.95K
Realized PnL: $5.37K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $737.54
Potential payout: $5.36K
Potential profit: $4.63K
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$8.05

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $5.34K
Potential profit: $4.33K
Multiplier: 5.28x
User PnL: $77.47

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $242.06
Potential payout: $5.32K
Potential profit: $5.08K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$93.1

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $294.12
Potential payout: $5.3K
Potential profit: $5.01K
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$60.94

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.2%
Current value: $537.27
Potential payout: $5.29K
Potential profit: $4.76K
Multiplier: 9.85x
User PnL: -$23.82

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $441.96
Potential payout: $5.29K
Potential profit: $4.85K
Multiplier: 11.98x
User PnL: -$129.68

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 15.2%
Current value: $799.45
Potential payout: $5.28K
Potential profit: $4.48K
Multiplier: 6.60x
User PnL: $287.59

Yes position

Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $712.7
Potential profit: $712.7
User PnL: -$619.29

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$510

No position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $590.7
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $9.3
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $74.7

No position

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.6%
Current value: $297.13
Potential payout: $426.97
Potential profit: $129.84
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$82.87

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $462.36

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $371.29

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. Patriots

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $370.19

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360.48

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $354.11

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $293

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $272.81

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.62

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.11

No position

Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225.64

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.22

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.97

No position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.72

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.15

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.27

No position

Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.57

Yes position

Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.48

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.94

No position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.35

No position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.41

Yes position

Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.65

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.3

No position

Steve Bannon exonerated by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.72

No position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.07

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 98.1% 463.85 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 6.3% 5,320.05 shares
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 6.7% 5,299.4 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 9.7% 5,276.9 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.6% 5,293.3 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.8% 5,292.96 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 13.9% 5,363.95 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 17.5% 5,342.68 shares
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?

Yes 93% 275.06 shares
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?

No 96.3% 499.36 shares
Iran leadership change by June 30?

No 98.5% 847.31 shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 86.8% 506.4 shares