Polymarket Trader

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0x3d0bcd8b4c4689c643337d48783086849acef522

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $227.73
Realized PnL: -$64.87
Win rate: 20%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 10
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $819
Potential profit: $819
User PnL: -$39.6

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $769.23
Potential profit: $769.23
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $720.51
Potential profit: $720.51
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $628.02
Potential profit: $628.02
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $90.14
Potential payout: $581.56
Potential profit: $491.42
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $15.14

Yes position

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.2%
Current value: $77.58
Potential payout: $405.13
Potential profit: $327.55
Multiplier: 5.22x
User PnL: $42.58

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $391.93
Potential profit: $391.93
User PnL: -$46

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $28.64
Potential payout: $272.73
Potential profit: $244.09
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.36

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255.38
Potential profit: $255.38
User PnL: -$15.6

Yes position

Megaquake by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.1
Potential profit: $205.1
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 16.7%
Current value: $31.37
Potential payout: $187.85
Potential profit: $156.48
Multiplier: 5.99x
User PnL: $21.37

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75.76
Potential profit: $75.76
User PnL: -$25

No position

US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.92
Potential profit: $56.92
User PnL: -$37

The MongolZ position

IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere

Ends Aug 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$15

Elina Svitolina position

Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.43
Potential profit: $31.43
User PnL: -$14.77

Astralis position

IEM Cologne: Vitality vs. Astralis

Ends Jul 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.56
Potential profit: $30.56
User PnL: -$2.75

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US military action against Iran by Monday?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

No position

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.34

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.91

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$6.12

Yes position

Ukraine hits Moscow by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.06

Yes position

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$15.2

Yes position

Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$18.51

No position

Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$19.13

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$44.28

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Yes 12% 291.67 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes 11% 272.73 shares
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Yes 8.6% 405.13 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Yes 13.8% 289.9 shares
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?

Yes 5.3% 187.85 shares
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk

Elina Svitolina 47% 31.43 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.9% 555.56 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 13.8% 72.46 shares
Megaquake by March 31?

Yes 11.7% 205.1 shares
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?

Yes 13% 769.23 shares
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?

No 65% 56.92 shares
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Yes 18% 72.72 shares