No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $6.65K
- Potential payout
- $6.66K
- Potential profit
- $16.66
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Polymarket Trader
johnlansford3949
0x3d3cf99a0c556d7be1bf5510ff9b8f05c339e797
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $13.2K
- Realized PnL
- $6.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $2.25K
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $351.08
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $367.68
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $2K
- Potential payout
- $2.35K
- Potential profit
- $352.94
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $3.01
- User PnL
- $202.36
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.08K
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $75.07
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $213.7
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $249.99
- Potential profit
- $249.99
- User PnL
- -$144.99
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $17.83
- Potential payout
- $18.04
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $523.48
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475.67
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.8
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275.94
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $264.77
No position
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.91
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.71
No position
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.17
No position
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.56
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.19
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.95
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $57.22
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.36
No position
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.44
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.67
No position
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.66
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.95
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.15
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.3
No position
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.22
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.22
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 75% 1,154.86 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No 85% 2,352.94 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 2.5% 1,518.97 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 73.6% 3,309.69 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 57% 1,055.56 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 57.4% 1,103.37 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 95.8% 6,300 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 86% 1,677.91 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 92% 2,775.65 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 75% 2,000 shares
- Iran leadership change by May 31?No 94% 800 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?No 7% 5.47 shares