Polymarket Trader

jonxm

0x3d6517d29ddf8d851d67183879f83b1aeb2ac7ed

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $159.79
Realized PnL: $592.59
Win rate: 91.7%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $22.76
Potential payout: $157
Potential profit: $134.24
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$2.36

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $20.63
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $104.38
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$4.37

Yes position

Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Ends Oct 27, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $18.53
Potential payout: $109
Potential profit: $90.47
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$6.54

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79
Potential profit: $79
User PnL: -$25.28

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $72
Potential profit: $63
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$16.2

Yes position

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Ends Oct 27, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $23.76
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $42.24
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$1.32

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $26.45
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $19.55
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $1.61

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $15.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $24.4
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$9.6

No position

Israeli election results in a hung parliament?

Ends Oct 27, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $21.35
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $13.65
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $28
User PnL: -$10.08

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.68
Potential profit: $25.68
User PnL: -$17.72

Yes position

Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Ends Oct 27, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $4.29
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.91

Yes position

S&P 500 all time high by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.97

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.6

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.4

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.84

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.34

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.91

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.7

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.67

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.56

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.92

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.99

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.57

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.16

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.16

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.39

Yes position

Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4?

Ends Apr 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Yes 23% 109 shares
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Yes 38% 66 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes 16% 157 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

No 54% 46 shares
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?

Yes 1.1% 97 shares
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?

No 71% 35 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 27% 93 shares
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Yes 63% 40 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Up 51.5% 9.71 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 69% 36 shares
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in May?

Yes 26% 97 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 32% 15.67 shares