No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $283.61
- Potential payout
- $609.91
- Potential profit
- $326.3
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $101.49
Polymarket Trader
0x3D9066cADF0F36486Ca26b2B209e3D051632BF35-1779647750818
0x3d9066cadf0f36486ca26b2b209e3d051632bf35
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $283.61
- Realized PnL
- $363.77
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.73
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.91
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.93
No position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.24
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Multiplier
- 58.82x
- User PnL
- $2.4
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $1.43
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.2%
- Multiplier
- 8.97x
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 29.9% 609.91 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No 88% 113.45 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 76% 1 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 79.6% 175.95 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes 25.9% 400 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 97.7% 283.38 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 81.8% 183.37 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 81.8% 100 shares
- Knicks vs. SpursKnicks 36% 138.89 shares
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 20.8% 293.46 shares
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 7.7% 647.11 shares
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 57% 526.76 shares