0x3DBaC150815BdDef07bBc61b32927D4eF2E1D44f-1778423202391

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $128.59
Potential profit: $128.59
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?

Ends Aug 9, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.86
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.05
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?

Ends Aug 9, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $65.83
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.79
Potential profit: $61.79
User PnL: -$12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.82
Potential profit: $43.82
User PnL: -$6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.39
Potential profit: $32.39
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $6.57
Potential payout: $23.08
Potential profit: $16.5
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $1.35
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $21.38
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.2
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $19.38
Potential profit: $17.92
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$1.55

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $16.95
Potential profit: $16.79
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.84

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $3.74
Potential payout: $8.7
Potential profit: $4.96
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $1.74

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $3.44
Potential payout: $6.49
Potential profit: $3.05
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$0.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.25
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?

Ends Aug 9, 2026

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $6.17
Potential profit: $5.18
Multiplier: 6.19x
User PnL: -$0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.77
Potential profit: $4.77
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.01
Potential profit: $4.01
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.57
Potential profit: $3.57
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.83
Potential profit: $2.83
User PnL: -$1.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.96
Potential profit: $1.96
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.87

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.27

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.51

Yes position

Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.94

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.82

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.81

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.76

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.82

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.32

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.81

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET