HexFragLord

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $221.79
Potential profit: $221.79
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Interstellar object confirmed aliens?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160.16
Potential profit: $160.16
User PnL: -$90

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

Ends Aug 14, 2028

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $6.48
Potential payout: $140.85
Potential profit: $134.37
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: -$3.52

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $12.34
Potential payout: $123.44
Potential profit: $111.1
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$2.66

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $7.91
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $104.45
Multiplier: 14.20x
User PnL: -$2.09

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.62
Potential profit: $81.62
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.79
Potential profit: $78.79
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $9.64
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $61.79
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.36

120k position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $65
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $52.5
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $9.71
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $49.12
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.62
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.9%
Current value: $10.18
Potential payout: $39.37
Potential profit: $29.2
Multiplier: 3.87x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.75
Potential profit: $37.75
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.59
Potential profit: $29.59
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.53
Potential profit: $27.53
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.64

Yes position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.76

Yes position

Grokipedia released by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.94

Yes position

Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.9

Yes position

Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.78

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 21?

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.03

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.1

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?

Ends Aug 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.3

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Yes position

Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.92

Yes position

Missing Epstein cell footage released in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.16

Yes position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 8AM ET

Ends Aug 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.7

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

X relaunches Vine in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94

Yes position

Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.21

Yes position

Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea"?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Discord IPO before 2027?