No position
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $847.14
- Potential payout
- $883.82
- Potential profit
- $36.68
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $333.64
Polymarket Trader
xiaoliao168
0x3dd953f88b4dfc1e1ee30b08178b2c02330318e7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $870.18
- Realized PnL
- $1.12K
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $388.83
- Potential profit
- $388.83
- User PnL
- -$275.5
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $276.89
- Potential profit
- $276.89
- User PnL
- -$141.48
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.27
- Potential profit
- $133.27
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$71
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$64.95
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $96.61
- Potential profit
- $96.61
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $11.14
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $34.32
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $1.14
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $11.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $8.1
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $1.9
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.95
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.7
No position
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.59
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.25
Yes position
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?
Ends Aug 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.78
No position
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.07
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.91
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.12
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.14
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.2
No position
Fed rate cut by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.04
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.7
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.63
No position
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.36
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.44
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?
Ends Dec 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.78
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.37
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.72
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.28
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
No position
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.81
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.27
No position
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$4.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?Yes 11.7% 143.72 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?Yes 25.1% 140.9 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?Yes 58.8% 67.99 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?Yes 81% 27.99 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17?No 78% 25 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?Yes 73% 30 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?Yes 72% 18.9 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 86% 69.44 shares
- Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?No 88.1% 294.6 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 65% 70 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17?No 65% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 71% 100 shares