Polymarket Trader

justcris

0x3ea9eace9fb326bf87244ac7ab444980207a1a0a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $23.63
Realized PnL: -$0.45
Win rate: 88.9%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 9
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.81
Potential profit: $8.81
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.4%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $4.64
Multiplier: 5.73x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 38.9%
Current value: $1.96
Potential payout: $5.05
Potential profit: $3.09
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 30.6%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $3.44
Potential profit: $2.39
Multiplier: 3.27x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 34.2%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $2.74
Potential profit: $1.8
Multiplier: 2.93x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $1.43
Potential payout: $2.63
Potential profit: $1.2
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 45.2%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $2.53
Potential profit: $1.39
Multiplier: 2.21x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $1.28
Potential payout: $2.27
Potential profit: $0.99
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $0.28

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.85
Potential payout: $2.27
Potential profit: $0.42
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $2.22
Potential profit: $1.24
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $2.17
Potential profit: $1.27
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.49
Potential profit: $0.47
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $1.47
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.37
Potential profit: $0.38
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Ends Aug 21, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $1.22
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

Ends Aug 14, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $1.1
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.08
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $1.08
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?

Ends Aug 7, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.08
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $1.06
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.02
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Argentina position

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.07

England position

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Spain position

Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Yes 56.7% 8.81 shares
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

England 58.2% 5.89 shares
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

Yes 99.8% 3.52 shares
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

Yes 89.7% 3.52 shares
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Argentina 74.7% 20.07 shares
Will England win on 2026-07-11?

Yes 51.5% 19.42 shares
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance

Spain 71.7% 1.39 shares
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 44% 2.27 shares
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Yes 67% 1.49 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

No 92.5% 1.08 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 91% 1.1 shares
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

No 82% 1.22 shares