Polymarket Trader

hotdonkey

0x3eb49bff15e79391783ef720b2fb8d4bf8dfb3fc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $941.43
Realized PnL: $1.38K
Win rate: 88.9%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 18
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $925.23
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $629.78
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $23.33

No position

World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$71

Over position

United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$127.2

Over position

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.97
Potential profit: $137.97
User PnL: -$17.94

No position

Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$75

Over position

United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$67.99

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $16.21
Potential payout: $22.05
Potential profit: $5.84
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $1.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $270.37

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.62

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.51

No position

Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.25

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.8

Under position

Switzerland vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.3

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 38.2%
Multiplier: 2.62x
User PnL: $75.9

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $73.5

No position

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.47

Yes position

Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.9

Yes position

Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $58

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.92x
User PnL: $55

Yes position

Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.5

Japan position

Spread: Brazil (-1.5)

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.07

No position

Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.7

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$34.99

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$35

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Switzerland vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Under 39% 130 shares
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners

Over 18% 100 shares
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

Yes 99.9% 100 shares
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)

Japan 73% 141 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19% 550 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.2% 1,000 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 48% 200 shares
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?

No 96.8% 335.33 shares
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?

No 92.3% 250 shares
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?

No 54.3% 20 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Yes 42% 200 shares
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

No 26% 1,049.97 shares