Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$37.5
Polymarket Trader
darik0200
0x3eb89a6604bc4da72ac2f680200c3e421bf77b06
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $58.08
- Realized PnL
- $524.04
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.3%
- Current value
- $32.6
- Potential payout
- $199.98
- Potential profit
- $167.38
- Multiplier
- 6.13x
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $1.62
- Potential payout
- $29.41
- Potential profit
- $27.79
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$3.38
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $10.53
- Potential profit
- $8.53
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$0
Y
Yes position
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.3%
- Current value
- $0.58
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $7.42
- Multiplier
- 13.79x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $6.04
- Potential profit
- $6
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.96
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $0.92
- Potential payout
- $5.26
- Potential profit
- $4.34
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Y
Yes position
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $4.35
- Potential profit
- $4.3
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85
- Potential profit
- $3.85
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85
- Potential profit
- $3.85
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $3.62
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$0.92
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 11?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.45
- Potential profit
- $3.45
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $2.05
- Potential payout
- $3.23
- Potential profit
- $1.18
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.24
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 9?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $2.08
- Potential profit
- $1.14
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $77.29
No position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.87
No position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.96
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $50
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.2
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.5
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.22
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.85
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.52
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.71
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4PM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.93
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.8
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.44
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.29
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.43
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.92
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.14
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.97
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.72
Yes position
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.67
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No 59% 2.04 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No 49% 2.04 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 12?Yes 48% 2.08 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?Yes 19% 5.26 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 9?Yes 96.1% 1.88 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 11?Yes 29% 3.45 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?Yes 26% 3.85 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 10?Yes 21% 8.33 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes 19% 10.53 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 9?Yes 53% 1.89 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 10?Yes 12% 8.33 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?Yes 26% 3.85 shares