No position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.43K
- Potential profit
- $3.43K
- User PnL
- -$1.24K
Polymarket Trader
VdBellen
0x3f23b30667c4a380115bffd90c8ffb4d955327cb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.93K
- Realized PnL
- $5.16K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $2.07K
- User PnL
- -$90
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- -$936
Yes position
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$300
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $902.38
- Potential payout
- $997.11
- Potential profit
- $94.73
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $74.78
No position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $996.63
- Potential profit
- $996.63
- User PnL
- -$175
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $869.57
- Potential profit
- $869.57
- User PnL
- -$400
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $847.84
- Potential profit
- $847.84
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $802.58
- Potential profit
- $802.58
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $417.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $82.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $483.05
- Potential profit
- $483.05
- User PnL
- -$350.25
No position
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $359.39
- Potential profit
- $359.39
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $356.96
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- User PnL
- $56.96
No position
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $353.61
- Potential profit
- $353.61
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $324.44
- Potential profit
- $324.44
- User PnL
- -$90
No position
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $312.5
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $304.99
- Potential profit
- $304.99
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $256.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $43.5
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
No position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $270.27
- Potential profit
- $270.27
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
Ends Aug 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $192.31
- Potential profit
- $192.31
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $181.82
- Potential profit
- $181.82
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
No position
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $555.11
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $485.5
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $435.41
No position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $286.79
No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $238.76
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $211.11
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.27
No position
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.23
Yes position
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
Ends Aug 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.08
No position
Epstein client list released in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.43
Yes position
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.66
No position
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.57
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.6
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.79
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.67
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.29
No position
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.5
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.08
No position
GPT ads by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.18
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.72
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 83% 500 shares
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?No 87% 102 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 78% 1,200 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No 85% 1,000 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No 85% 1,500 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 64% 10.58 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?No 4% 620.12 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No 94.1% 500 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 83% 997.11 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 80% 80 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 85% 350 shares
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?No 79% 600 shares