0x3f70e43Ce855CD63c5b156d507CD747f21D7b64F-1777915955108

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $56.55
Potential payout: $729.73
Potential profit: $673.18
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: -$24.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.69
Potential profit: $107.69
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $44.43
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $5.17
Potential payout: $37.36
Potential profit: $32.18
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.42
Potential profit: $21.42
User PnL: -$13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $18.2
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.8%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $17.54
Potential profit: $15.66
Multiplier: 9.30x
User PnL: -$0.11

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.28
Potential profit: $13.28
User PnL: -$3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.19
Potential profit: $11.19
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.58
Potential profit: $9.58
User PnL: -$3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.11
Potential profit: $9.11
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.82

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.11

No position

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $4.65

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.64

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

No position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET