Polymarket Trader

derangedCapitalist

0x404e7ba5cd81e003552b6c4e8042b5f04547a0d3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $326.79
Realized PnL: $1.27K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $3.45
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $296.55
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $4.05
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $295.95
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $4.35
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $295.65
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $31.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $218.75
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $11.25

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $120.74
Potential payout: $209.99
Potential profit: $89.24
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $21.65

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$46

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $19.58
Potential payout: $135
Potential profit: $115.43
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$10.92

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $128.53
Potential payout: $130.82
Potential profit: $2.29
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $67.83

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$64.7

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $120
User PnL: -$63.4

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $14.85
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $95.15
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$4.65

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.66
Potential profit: $101.66
User PnL: -$62.29

No position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $85
User PnL: -$4.96

No position

Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $75
User PnL: -$31.58

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.99
Potential profit: $69.99
User PnL: -$43.9

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.97
Potential profit: $69.97
User PnL: -$21.69

Yes position

Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$15.6

Yes position

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$9.1

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.5
Potential profit: $57.5
User PnL: -$28.52

No position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.98
Potential profit: $49.98
User PnL: -$5

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$20.8

No position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$8.8

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$2.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.31

No position

TikTok sale announced by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.33

No position

OpenAI browser by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $84.13

No position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.79

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.81

No position

Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.95

No position

OpenAI browser in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.8

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.11

No position

OpenAI browser by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.61

No position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.04

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.22

No position

OpenAI browser by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.71

No position

Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.6

No position

Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.79

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44

No position

Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.87

No position

India x Pakistan military clash by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.74

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.46

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.11

No position

TikTok sale announced by September 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.29

No position

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.34

No position

Will Prince Andrew be named in the Epstein survivors' list?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.42

No position

Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.81

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.44

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Yes 0.3% 69.99 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Yes 0.3% 262.5 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Yes 0.2% 120 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Yes 0.4% 50.78 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Yes 1.2% 50 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Yes 0.3% 305.71 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Yes 0.4% 180 shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Yes 8.5% 100 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 10% 35 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?

No 11% 20 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 38% 20 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 15% 10 shares