Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $10.61
- Potential payout
- $268.6
- Potential profit
- $257.99
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$3.92
Polymarket Trader
NothingEverHappens12
@sonne4700
0x407d04dacce5aba2e397cfc4bacd8ef044e2efcd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $789.6
- Realized PnL
- $661.22
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $81.12
- Potential payout
- $160.64
- Potential profit
- $79.52
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $13.56
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $8.24
- Potential payout
- $135.16
- Potential profit
- $126.92
- Multiplier
- 16.39x
- User PnL
- -$1.31
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $93.17
- Potential payout
- $107.71
- Potential profit
- $14.54
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $3.77
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $75.92
- Potential payout
- $107.69
- Potential profit
- $31.77
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $5.92
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $57.59
- Potential payout
- $101.95
- Potential profit
- $44.36
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $13.59
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.03
- Potential profit
- $83.03
- User PnL
- -$24.65
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $64.63
- Potential payout
- $74.71
- Potential profit
- $10.09
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $74.21
- Potential payout
- $74.35
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- User PnL
- $12.92
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $29.24
- Potential payout
- $70.46
- Potential profit
- $41.22
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$6.65
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $22.06
- Potential payout
- $70.03
- Potential profit
- $47.97
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$3.85
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $57.7
- Potential payout
- $69.1
- Potential profit
- $11.4
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $56.51
- Potential payout
- $67.68
- Potential profit
- $11.17
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $5.51
Yes position
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.71
- Potential profit
- $64.71
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.8%
- Current value
- $50.23
- Potential payout
- $62.98
- Potential profit
- $12.75
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $14.89
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $59.97
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $4.59
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $22.37
- Potential payout
- $44.29
- Potential profit
- $21.92
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $2.44
No position
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $15.2
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $24.8
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
No position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $10.83
- Potential payout
- $15.15
- Potential profit
- $4.32
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.67
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.35
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.98
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.88
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.42
No position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.57
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.3
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.34
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.78
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $23.55
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.4
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.13
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.02
No position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.79
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.65
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.36
No position
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.94
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.79
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.61
Yes position
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.98
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $11.76
No position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.51
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.5
Yes position
Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on December 5, 2025?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 1.3% 40 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 68% 67.84 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 69% 17.39 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 68% 5 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 75% 6.67 shares
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?No 72% 12.3 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?No 45% 44.29 shares
- Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?Yes 17% 64.71 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Yes 37% 70.03 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 15% 80 shares
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes 17% 23.01 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 74% 33.78 shares