Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $158.01
- Potential payout
- $10.53K
- Potential profit
- $10.38K
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$20.49
Polymarket Trader
ttwong1
0x40c54e7f9fe32843a8174f927338e87d8fc85cba
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.95K
- Realized PnL
- $26.68K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $74.02
- Potential payout
- $3.46K
- Potential profit
- $3.38K
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$6.6
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $58.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.94K
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$24
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $94.25
- Potential payout
- $2.48K
- Potential profit
- $2.39K
- Multiplier
- 26.32x
- User PnL
- -$5.83
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $106.07
- Potential payout
- $2.28K
- Potential profit
- $2.17K
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- -$13.59
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Current value
- $2.07K
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $159.65
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$8.74
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $110.67
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- Multiplier
- 12.12x
- User PnL
- -$14.5
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $15.74
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.24K
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.32
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- User PnL
- -$4.44
No position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $1.02K
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $132.31
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $16.57
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$10.13
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $905.01
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$5.34
Yes position
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.86
- Potential payout
- $954.87
- Potential profit
- $952.01
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.38
Yes position
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $14.88
- Potential payout
- $902.12
- Potential profit
- $887.24
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$1.16
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $18.43
- Potential payout
- $898.84
- Potential profit
- $880.42
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$4.44
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $133.79
- Potential payout
- $863.17
- Potential profit
- $729.38
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$6.85
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $19.74
- Potential payout
- $805.79
- Potential profit
- $786.05
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $784.61
- Potential profit
- $784.22
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$636.81
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $55.42
- Potential payout
- $776.18
- Potential profit
- $720.76
- Multiplier
- 14.01x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $100.53
- Potential payout
- $744.69
- Potential profit
- $644.15
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $34.17
- Potential payout
- $719.35
- Potential profit
- $685.18
- Multiplier
- 21.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.36
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $93.12
- Potential payout
- $716.32
- Potential profit
- $623.2
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$14.7
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $30.11
- Potential payout
- $640.74
- Potential profit
- $610.62
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- $4.04
No position
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $621.72
- Potential payout
- $638.98
- Potential profit
- $17.25
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$1.37
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.13K
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.53K
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $2.2K
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $1.73K
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $1.68K
Yes position
SBF released from custody in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- $1.37K
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.7%
- Multiplier
- 9.39x
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $1.28K
Yes position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.2%
- Multiplier
- 13.99x
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $988.27
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- $987.27
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $914
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.9%
- Multiplier
- 10.15x
- User PnL
- $851.21
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $750
Yes position
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- $601.46
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $594.35
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $489
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $445.03
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $443.89
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $379.28
Yes position
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Multiplier
- 21.74x
- User PnL
- $375.6
Yes position
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Multiplier
- 52.63x
- User PnL
- $367.07
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $363
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 47.5% 200 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 47% 200 shares
- Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?No 30% 15 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Yes 4.8% 130.09 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.6% 300 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.6% 20 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.5% 20 shares
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes 20% 10 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 1.8% 111.68 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?No 89% 114.94 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 97.4% 90.85 shares
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 9.7% 100 shares