0x40C73F1916fbd495f8117Dc5755561aD778CB1E8-1782111633519

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $4.22
Potential payout: $66.96
Potential profit: $62.74
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 25.8%
Current value: $14.91
Potential payout: $57.81
Potential profit: $42.89
Multiplier: 3.88x
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $4.68
Potential payout: $42.95
Potential profit: $38.27
Multiplier: 9.17x
User PnL: -$0.97

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $37.19
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $0.65

Yes position

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Ends Nov 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.68
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.45
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.71
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$4.11

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.66
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $1.34
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $23.66
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.8
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will Damon Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.84
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.12
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$0.53

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$2.8

No position

Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $21.88
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$1.73

No position

Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.32
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.67
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $4
Potential payout: $24.97
Potential profit: $20.97
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $5.12
Potential payout: $23.82
Potential profit: $18.7
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $21.98
Potential profit: $20.33
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 9.4%
Current value: $1.97
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $19.02
Multiplier: 10.64x
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by July 31?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.73
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.5
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Melanie Moreno win Love Island USA Season 8?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.39
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.25
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.35
Multiplier: 12.12x
User PnL: -$7.39

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $2.53

No position

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Grok 4.4 released by July 31?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Implied probability: 32%
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Implied probability: 44%
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Implied probability: 38%
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0.84

No position

Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

Implied probability: 36%
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31?

Implied probability: 81%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?

Implied probability: 36%
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Sudan make Eric Adams a citizen?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Multiplier: 25.64x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026?