lonewolfcapital

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $8.54K
Potential payout: $8.69K
Potential profit: $152.13
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $32.86

No position

Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $2.89K
Potential payout: $2.9K
Potential profit: $7.25
User PnL: $140.79

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $1.61K
Potential payout: $1.73K
Potential profit: $120.84
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $12.75

No position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $795.83
Potential payout: $810
Potential profit: $14.17
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $72.77
Potential payout: $525.43
Potential profit: $452.66
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$9.87

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $52.22
Potential payout: $495
Potential profit: $442.78
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $26.98
Potential payout: $495
Potential profit: $468.02
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$15.62

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $27.97
Potential payout: $495
Potential profit: $467.03
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $11.51

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $25.99
Potential payout: $495
Potential profit: $469.01
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.8%
Current value: $72.27
Potential payout: $490
Potential profit: $417.73
Multiplier: 6.78x
User PnL: $27.67

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $93.36
Potential payout: $480
Potential profit: $386.64
Multiplier: 5.14x
User PnL: $27.34

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.6%
Current value: $35.86
Potential payout: $475
Potential profit: $439.14
Multiplier: 13.25x
User PnL: $2.64

No position

Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $250.39
Potential payout: $264.82
Potential profit: $14.43
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $14.18

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $234.68
Potential payout: $249
Potential profit: $14.32
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $14.3

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $110.17
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.82
Potential profit: $91.82
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.46
Potential profit: $83.46
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.97
Potential profit: $81.97
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $74.96
Potential profit: $74.96
User PnL: -$14.99

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.22
Potential profit: $65.22
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.6%
Current value: $12.33
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $47.67
Multiplier: 4.87x
User PnL: $1.72

Yes position

Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $31.2
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $8.8
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: -$1.9

No position

US-China trade deal before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.89
Potential profit: $31.89
User PnL: -$25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.55

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.66

Yes position

Trump EO easing access or decriminalizing weed by Friday?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.04

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $37.89

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.93

No position

Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.67

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.66

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $21.73

No position

Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.48

No position

Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.76

No position

Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.49

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.85

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $8.62

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.13

No position

Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.6

No position

Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.99

No position

Will Austria join NATO by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.59

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.2

No position

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

No position

S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $4.21

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.68

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?