Polymarket Trader

0x4135...e462

0x413531f78b28c2f2014dd82e92f46802769ce462

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $501.42
Realized PnL: $11.23K
Win rate: 91.7%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $269.5
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $928.27
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $19.5

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $102.56
Potential payout: $661.67
Potential profit: $559.11
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $12.56

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.8%
Current value: $48.32
Potential payout: $257.73
Potential profit: $209.41
Multiplier: 5.33x
User PnL: -$1.68

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $17.71
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $190.63
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$7.29

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $18.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $181.9
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $16.94
Potential payout: $99.62
Potential profit: $82.69
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$8.06

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $14.13
Potential payout: $40.98
Potential profit: $26.85
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$5.87

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $3.92
Potential payout: $25.29
Potential profit: $21.37
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $20.83
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $10.24
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.24

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.44K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $970.53

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $910

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $865.34

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $690.76

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455.15

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $419.5

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $409.14

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $353.78

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $315.15

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $287.43

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $228.05

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.3

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.82

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.76

Yes position

Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.94

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.45

Yes position

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.5

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.41

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.72

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Yes 27.9% 179.18 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 24% 20.83 shares
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Yes 8% 35.41 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Yes 13% 384.62 shares
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Yes 19% 789.47 shares
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?

Yes 29.6% 50.6 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?

Yes 25% 60 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 99.9% 540.04 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 23% 434.78 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 19% 105.26 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Yes 11% 181.82 shares
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Yes 21.8% 229.12 shares