Polymarket Trader

luckyfly

0x413f29bc7f5ce2a2d8d28fb3a8b5d75199d247f3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $39.44K
Realized PnL: $88.9K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $10.87K
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $14.12K
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $4.12K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $4.55K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $5.45K
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $950

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $5.51K
Potential payout: $9.1K
Potential profit: $3.59K
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $864.49

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $4.54K
Potential payout: $9K
Potential profit: $4.45K
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$945

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $45.5
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $6.95K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.07K

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $738.33
Potential payout: $6.71K
Potential profit: $5.97K
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$1.75K

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $273.76
Potential payout: $5.42K
Potential profit: $5.15K
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: -$726.22

Yes position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.8%
Current value: $1.74K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $3.26K
Multiplier: 2.87x
User PnL: $454.5

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $4.03K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $975
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $475

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $2.75K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $255
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $435

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $1.91K
Potential payout: $2.77K
Potential profit: $858.33
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $55.08

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $2.49K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $8.75
User PnL: $766.41

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41K

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8K

Yes position

Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-16?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.86K

Yes position

Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.77K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.94K

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.22K

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?

Ends Dec 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.8K

Vitality position

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.84K

Yes position

Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7K

Yes position

Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-24?

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5K

Yes position

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.48K

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.43K

No position

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.37K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33K

Yes position

Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-27?

Ends Dec 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3K

JD Gaming position

LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5)

Ends Dec 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23K

Yes position

Will Sporting CP win on 2025-12-28?

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2K

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94K

FaZe position

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.91K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 61% 10,000 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 65% 10,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 36% 35 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

No 51% 57.74 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 71% 5,000 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.2% 200,004.19 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 12,806.63 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 55.1% 1,560.51 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 55.1% 5,000 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 56.9% 1,000 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 54.7% 641 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 16.1% 378.89 shares