Yes position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $221.69
- Potential payout
- $3.86K
- Potential profit
- $3.63K
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$213.77
Polymarket Trader
Toncar16
0x41583f2efc720b8e2682750fffb67f2806fece9f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.06K
- Realized PnL
- $47.73K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $142.78
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.05K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$204.56
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $666.42
- Potential payout
- $925.59
- Potential profit
- $259.17
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $214.09
No position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $477.03
- Potential payout
- $667.18
- Potential profit
- $190.15
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $122.4
No position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.6%
- Current value
- $204.65
- Potential payout
- $530.18
- Potential profit
- $325.53
- Multiplier
- 2.59x
- User PnL
- -$18.04
No position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $343.29
- Potential payout
- $440.12
- Potential profit
- $96.83
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $204.39
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.69K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.58K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.31K
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.82K
No position
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.01K
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96K
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?
Ends Nov 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94K
Yes position
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83K
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78K
Yes position
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.58K
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
Yes position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
No position
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 43.7% 241.76 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 7% 63.65 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 16.6% 176.99 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No 48% 330 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 35.8% 176.99 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No 35.8% 95 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No 27.8% 88.16 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 43% 813.26 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 45.6% 500 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 12% 2.99 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 11.6% 367.36 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 40% 820.57 shares