Polymarket Trader

gnosh

0x41ad8eece0376e3a8738561c92f5f7df1ddadf74

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.96K
Realized PnL: $456.39
Win rate: 47.4%
Open positions: 2
Closed positions: 19
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.57K
Potential payout: $1.77K
Potential profit: $203.52
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $239.08

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $392.05
Potential payout: $694.03
Potential profit: $301.97
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $62.57

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

GTA VI released in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $397.72

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.49

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $40

No position

Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.24

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.19

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.93

No position

Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.75

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.08

Yes position

Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.89

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8?

Ends Aug 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.04

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 11?

Ends Aug 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

No position

Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 8?

Ends Aug 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.3

No position

Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13.8

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$30.76

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$40.99

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

No 4% 53.04 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Yes 75.6% 1,288.15 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Yes 69% 11.25 shares
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

No 62% 53.05 shares
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Yes 76% 32.89 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 46% 130.43 shares
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Yes 48% 125 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 46% 368.46 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Yes 73.5% 470.31 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?

No 98.2% 116.27 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

No 95% 35.71 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 51.2% 195.13 shares