Polymarket Trader

GracjanSz

0x41b828a8363da32970e3c6243d8e2317ad16aceb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $125.7
Realized PnL: $60.32
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.33
Potential profit: $81.33
User PnL: -$12.2

No position

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.66
Potential profit: $15.66
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.05
Potential profit: $15.05
User PnL: -$14

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $10.45
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.45

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $9.2
Potential payout: $9.2
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $9.05
Potential payout: $9.05
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $9.04
Potential payout: $9.04
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.04

No position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.29
Potential payout: $8.29
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.14
Potential payout: $8.14
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.14

No position

Iran leadership change by March 13?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.11
Potential payout: $8.11
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.06
Potential payout: $8.06
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.04
Potential payout: $8.04
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $2.57
Potential payout: $7.89
Potential profit: $5.33
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$3.43

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $7.17
Potential payout: $7.17
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $7.16
Potential payout: $7.16
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $7.04
Potential payout: $7.04
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $5.97
Potential payout: $6.98
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 91.6%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $6.28
Potential profit: $0.53
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $6.12
Potential payout: $6.13
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.56
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.56

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.43

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?

Ends Sep 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.62

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $8.24

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16

Yes position

OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $1.96

Yes position

Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77

No position

US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in September?

Ends Oct 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Yes position

ETHBTC above 0.035 on Nov 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.68

Yes position

Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22

Yes position

Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Tesla bot at Trump inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.82

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Will Solana reach $300 in May?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

No position

US GDP declines in Q3 2024?

Ends Oct 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

No position

Will Stade Brestois advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

Ends Feb 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Doge ETF approved in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.36

No position

Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

No 95.7% 10.45 shares
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Yes 86% 6.98 shares
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?

No 87% 9.2 shares
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

No 97.8% 6.13 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

Yes 86% 8.14 shares
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?

No 99.5% 9.05 shares
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?

No 95.6% 6.28 shares
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?

Yes 99.2% 8.06 shares
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

No 76% 7.89 shares
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

No 96.5% 8.29 shares
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Yes 97.8% 7.16 shares
Iran leadership change by March 13?

No 98.6% 8.11 shares