MMONLY

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $99
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $201
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$9

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 88.6%
Current value: $186.7
Potential payout: $210.84
Potential profit: $24.14
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $176.99
Potential profit: $176.02
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$27.35

No position

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $115.46
Potential payout: $166.15
Potential profit: $50.69
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$17.46

Yes position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $16.56
Potential payout: $150.5
Potential profit: $133.95
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$19.56

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $100.8
Potential payout: $147.15
Potential profit: $46.35
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.74

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $27.38
Potential payout: $136.24
Potential profit: $108.86
Multiplier: 4.98x
User PnL: -$0.68

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 88.4%
Current value: $106.08
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $13.92
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $84
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $36
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $51.92
Potential payout: $107.05
Potential profit: $55.13
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$11.24

Yes position

Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $6.36
Potential payout: $85.35
Potential profit: $78.99
Multiplier: 13.42x
User PnL: -$18.39

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Verticality" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $7.93
Potential payout: $83.47
Potential profit: $75.54
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$14.61

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $17.3
Potential payout: $69.2
Potential profit: $51.9
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$11.07

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $9.75
Potential payout: $67.24
Potential profit: $57.49
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $21.69
Potential payout: $66.73
Potential profit: $45.04
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$7.01

Yes position

Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $40.5
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $19.5
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $28.48
Potential payout: $47.87
Potential profit: $19.39
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$11.73

No position

Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $15.77
Potential payout: $35.84
Potential profit: $20.07
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$3.23

No position

Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $9.18
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $9
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$1.18

No position

Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $9.55
Potential profit: $7.31
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.62

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $4.15
Potential payout: $6.43
Potential profit: $2.28
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $4.08
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $6.15

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 92%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.12

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?

Implied probability: 24%
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Implied probability: 91%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.6%
Multiplier: 5.39x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.7%
Multiplier: 6.83x
User PnL: -$1.14

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.1%
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: -$1.68

No position

Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be between 83% and 85%?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$1.8

No position

Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 32%-34%?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 69%
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$4.49

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$5.85

Yes position

Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 23.9%
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: -$6.85

Yes position

Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 51.5%
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$6.99

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$7.07

No position

Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$8.02

No position

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 18, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$9.09

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?