No position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $23.92
- Potential payout
- $29
- Potential profit
- $5.08
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.34
Polymarket Trader
0x435c...8a18
0x435c6a92e36dedec7d2f33704207df6587388a18
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $90.56
- Realized PnL
- -$29.59
- Win rate
- 28.6%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.5
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $14.56
- Potential payout
- $16
- Potential profit
- $1.44
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.56
No position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $13.7
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.45
Yes position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $4.36
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $8.65
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$1.69
Yes position
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $3.1
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.9
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $7.88
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.1%
- Current value
- $2.32
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $5.68
- Multiplier
- 3.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $3.15
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $2.85
- Multiplier
- 1.91x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.96
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $4.33
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $3.85
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.95
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.1%
- Current value
- $4.41
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.9%
- Current value
- $1.19
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $2.81
- Multiplier
- 3.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- -$1.09
Yes position
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$6.65
Yes position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Multiplier
- 46.51x
- User PnL
- -$21.61
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No 96.4% 7 shares
- Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 13% 9 shares
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No 85.8% 5 shares
- Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No 87% 5 shares
- Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Yes 33.9% 8 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 50.5% 6 shares
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?No 81% 8 shares
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 19% 7 shares
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?No 85% 6 shares
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 16% 13 shares
- Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 26% 5 shares
- Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?No 79% 5 shares