Yes position
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $372.67
- Potential payout
- $15.86K
- Potential profit
- $15.49K
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$1.16K
Polymarket Trader
0x43AB6682572796f6f684970eBB6Cf8C14c92A0eF-1761760556265
0x43ab6682572796f6f684970ebb6cf8c14c92a0ef
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.09K
- Realized PnL
- $12.23K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $87
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.91K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$10.99
Yes position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $94.69
- Potential payout
- $5.92K
- Potential profit
- $5.82K
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$486.62
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.53K
- Potential profit
- $3.53K
- User PnL
- -$2.7K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $3.05K
- Potential payout
- $3.38K
- Potential profit
- $320.63
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $307.88
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $1.86K
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $78.71
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $90.83
Yes position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $35.38
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- Multiplier
- 43.48x
- User PnL
- -$63.64
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- User PnL
- -$1.02K
No position
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $865
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $135
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $925
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $25
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $908.19
- Potential payout
- $930.05
- Potential profit
- $21.86
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $180.85
No position
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $480
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $270
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- -$80.35
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $738.05
- Potential payout
- $747.77
- Potential profit
- $9.72
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $144.7
No position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $406.79
- Potential payout
- $732.96
- Potential profit
- $326.17
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $174.71
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $476.25
- Potential payout
- $727.1
- Potential profit
- $250.85
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $4.2
Yes position
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $648
- Potential payout
- $648.32
- Potential profit
- $0.32
- User PnL
- $248.15
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $369
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $231
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $369
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $231
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $449.98
- Potential profit
- $449.98
- User PnL
- -$247.49
Yes position
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $399.8
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- User PnL
- $123.8
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $370.19
- Potential profit
- $370.19
- User PnL
- -$125
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $307.25
- Potential profit
- $307.25
- User PnL
- -$50
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $265.63
- Potential profit
- $265.63
- User PnL
- -$50
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $819.77
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $716.19
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $706.24
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $698.11
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $560.45
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $373
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $350.75
No position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $342.93
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $328
No position
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $321.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.47
No position
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" today?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $223.92
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.79
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.7
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.98
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.43
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $80
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.53
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 70% 500 shares
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 74% 36 shares
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 73% 14.1 shares
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 75% 645 shares
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 79.8% 40.26 shares
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 78.1% 1,187.8 shares
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 80% 1.92 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 13.2% 400 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 2.7% 999.98 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 48% 400 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ETDown 82.6% 121.07 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ETDown 59% 42.37 shares