No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $10.75
- Potential payout
- $5.37K
- Potential profit
- $5.36K
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$59.23
Polymarket Trader
0x43ca1f1D6ee7Aabae77904Ac6bD49645EefCd04C-1772321874896
0x43ca1f1d6ee7aabae77904ac6bd49645eefcd04c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $564.5
- Realized PnL
- $1.49K
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $38
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.96K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $18
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.32K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $7.67
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $1.7K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.33
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $459.79
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $750.19
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$69.79
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- User PnL
- -$88.92
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.66
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.34
Yes position
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $5.3
- Potential payout
- $216.39
- Potential profit
- $211.09
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$4.7
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $5.37
- Potential payout
- $191.88
- Potential profit
- $186.51
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- -$4.63
Yes position
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $166.67
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.37
- Potential payout
- $147.06
- Potential profit
- $146.69
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$49.63
Yes position
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.6%
- Current value
- $7.85
- Potential payout
- $81.77
- Potential profit
- $73.92
- Multiplier
- 10.42x
- User PnL
- -$2.15
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $10.74
- Potential payout
- $74.07
- Potential profit
- $63.33
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$9.26
No position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $723.78
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.71
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.38
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.74
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $74
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.26
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.03
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.46
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.66
No position
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.35
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.33
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
Yes position
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.06
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.28
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.89
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.45
ex-RUBY position
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group Stage
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53
No position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
No position
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.49
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?No 0.5% 1,046.6 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?No 0.6% 1,703.67 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?No 0.6% 3,333.33 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?No 0.5% 4,000 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 5.2% 191.88 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?No 0.4% 5,080.54 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?No 34% 147.06 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?No 17% 294.12 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.1% 120.48 shares
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?Yes 0.2% 113.88 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 27% 74.07 shares
- Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?Yes 1.2% 127.61 shares