Roro22

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $309.06
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$840.94

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $1.14K
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $40.72
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $70.62

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $634.49
Potential payout: $697.24
Potential profit: $62.75
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.67
Potential profit: $588.67
User PnL: -$503.81

No position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $468.6
Potential payout: $535.54
Potential profit: $66.94
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $75.53

No position

Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $441.74
Potential payout: $480.15
Potential profit: $38.41
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $7.47

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $22.05
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $277.95
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$10.95

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $298.32
Potential profit: $298.32
User PnL: -$208.82

No position

Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $246.42
Potential payout: $280.02
Potential profit: $33.6
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $8.4

No position

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $265.15
Potential payout: $279.11
Potential profit: $13.96
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $10.01

Yes position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 45.1%
Current value: $94.72
Potential payout: $210.02
Potential profit: $115.3
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $77.04

No position

Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $195.77
Potential payout: $201
Potential profit: $5.23
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $11.86

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $27.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $172.7
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$5.7

No position

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $137.96
Potential payout: $183.94
Potential profit: $45.99
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$23.91

No position

Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$85.5

Yes position

Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $149.79
Potential profit: $149.79
User PnL: -$70.61

No position

Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.16
Potential profit: $148.16
User PnL: -$29.63

Yes position

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.14
Potential profit: $107.14
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 38.3%
Current value: $31.94
Potential payout: $83.51
Potential profit: $51.57
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: $24.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $855.73

No position

Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $696.13

Yes position

10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?

Ends Jun 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $538.37

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $341.56

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $321.71

No position

Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $304.7

Yes position

Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.7

Up position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.94

No position

Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 12 be between 90 and 95?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $270.57

Yes position

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.73

No position

Pete Hegseth nomination withdrawn by Friday?

Ends Dec 6, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.76

Yes position

Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.35

No position

Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $226.72

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $198.89

Yes position

Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Ends Dec 8, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.45

Yes position

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.91

Yes position

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.51

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.8

Yes position

Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.71

No position

Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.12

Yes position

Green Party (MDG) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election?

Ends Sep 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.11

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.9

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.1

No position

Will WeWork declare bankruptcy before July?