Polymarket Trader

calinbadea

0x4427ea2081153e12ef7ba7da62ea75b0ab68a13d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $325.3
Realized PnL: $982.89
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $97.93
Potential payout: $1.62K
Potential profit: $1.52K
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$49.06

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $523.65
Potential profit: $523.65
User PnL: -$175

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $27.42
Potential payout: $512.5
Potential profit: $485.08
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$62.58

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $408.83
Potential profit: $408.83
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $21.21
Potential payout: $385.59
Potential profit: $364.38
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$28.79

Yes position

Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $30.77
Potential payout: $323.88
Potential profit: $293.11
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$109.23

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 35.1%
Current value: $102.23
Potential payout: $291.67
Potential profit: $189.44
Multiplier: 2.85x
User PnL: $67.23

Yes position

Will Ilhan Omar be charged with fraud?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $258.02
Potential profit: $258.02
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $9.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $240.38
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$35.38

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $26.77
Potential payout: $243.35
Potential profit: $216.58
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$53.23

Yes position

Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $229.29
Potential profit: $229.29
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $7.92
Potential payout: $216.96
Potential profit: $209.04
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$17.08

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $211.52
Potential profit: $211.52
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $192.31
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.43
Potential payout: $190.19
Potential profit: $188.77
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$8.57

Yes position

Ilhan Omar federally charged by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $173.91
Potential profit: $173.91
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $168.07
Potential profit: $168.07
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.76
Potential profit: $147.76
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $358.64

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.63

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?

Ends Sep 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.01

Yes position

Ethereum all time high before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.92

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.11

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.37

Yes position

Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.04

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.85

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.15

Yes position

Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.25

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.3

Yes position

Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.99

Yes position

Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.13

Yes position

Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.7

Yes position

Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.89

Yes position

Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16?

Ends Sep 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?

Ends Sep 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Ethereum above $4800 on August 27?

Ends Aug 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Newcastle United vs. Barcelona end in a draw?

Ends Sep 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 36% 89.74 shares
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 39% 89.74 shares
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 51% 98.04 shares
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 71.4% 105.04 shares
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 27% 18.52 shares
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 40% 10 shares
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 33% 9.09 shares
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 46% 21.74 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

12.4% 40.42 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

47.3% 63.39 shares
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 24% 125 shares
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals

Yes 55% 9.09 shares