Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.6%
- Current value
- $17.55K
- Potential payout
- $100K
- Potential profit
- $82.45K
- Multiplier
- 5.70x
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Polymarket Trader
Warren-Buffett
0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $129.27K
- Realized PnL
- $139.92K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $74.89K
- Potential payout
- $75K
- Potential profit
- $112.5
- User PnL
- $47.88K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $1.33K
- Potential payout
- $70K
- Potential profit
- $68.67K
- Multiplier
- 52.63x
- User PnL
- -$3.37K
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $7.45K
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $42.55K
- Multiplier
- 6.71x
- User PnL
- $3.01K
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $12.38K
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $12.63K
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $4.84K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $130
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $19.87K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$2.71K
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $548.63
- Potential payout
- $17.42K
- Potential profit
- $16.87K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- $155.31
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $2.22K
- Potential payout
- $12K
- Potential profit
- $9.78K
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $200.01
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $429
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.57K
- Multiplier
- 23.31x
- User PnL
- -$420.98
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $8.42K
- Potential profit
- $7.29K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$60.55
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $242.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.76K
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $297.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.7K
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $197.3
- Potential payout
- $3.04K
- Potential profit
- $2.84K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$468.47
Yes position
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $2.87K
- Potential payout
- $2.88K
- Potential profit
- $10.06
- User PnL
- $3.7
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $2.35K
- Potential payout
- $2.72K
- Potential profit
- $366.65
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $176.54
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.3%
- Current value
- $2.42K
- Potential payout
- $2.65K
- Potential profit
- $232.11
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $189.66
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$94.98
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $650.38
- Potential payout
- $2.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.41K
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$122.14
Yes position
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $239.82
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- Multiplier
- 6.69x
- User PnL
- $56.74
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $1.33K
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $225.18
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $7.77
Yes position
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $98.26
- Potential payout
- $595.54
- Potential profit
- $497.27
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$23.74
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $78.4
- Potential payout
- $560
- Potential profit
- $481.6
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$95.2
No position
Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $367.32
- Potential payout
- $392.86
- Potential profit
- $25.54
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.96
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $76.46
- Potential payout
- $235.26
- Potential profit
- $158.8
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $17.64
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.83K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.41K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.15K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.6K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.5K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.25K
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.93K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.82K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.12K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71K
No position
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.69K
Yes position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.78K
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.14K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.89K
Yes position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.84K
Yes position
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27K
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03K
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.02K
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.92K
Yes position
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes 16% 3,422.18 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 21% 40,000 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 21% 10,000 shares
- Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show this week?No 99.8% 73 shares
- Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top global Netflix show this week?No 99.9% 47.04 shares
- Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week?Yes 99.9% 152.72 shares
- Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 89% 201.87 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 39.4% 318.37 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 37.4% 2,348.51 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 69.9% 150 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes 5.9% 5,000 shares
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Yes 16.2% 5.97 shares