Polymarket Trader

Loyalty-Crash

0x44d9200a6b0106d041f9460fa84d054736c14c1a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $116.34K
Realized PnL: $155.03K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $25.81K
Potential payout: $60.73K
Potential profit: $34.92K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$1.86K

No position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.83K
Potential profit: $38.83K
User PnL: -$7.09K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $37.33K
Potential payout: $37.43K
Potential profit: $93.56
User PnL: $11.34K

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $9.95K
Potential payout: $23.42K
Potential profit: $13.47K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$732.13

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $6.85K
Potential payout: $16.11K
Potential profit: $9.27K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$624.32

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $9.34K
Potential payout: $10.33K
Potential profit: $980.91
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $3.69K

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $9.05K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $950
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $750

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9K
Potential profit: $9K
User PnL: -$4.05K

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $12
Potential payout: $8K
Potential profit: $7.99K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$627.99

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $4.49K
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $11.25
User PnL: $1.7K

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,000 and 110,000 voters?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $4.36K
Potential payout: $4.4K
Potential profit: $41.8
User PnL: $2.42K

No position

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $3.99K
Potential payout: $4.09K
Potential profit: $104.32
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $256.04

No position

Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $30.01
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.97K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$609.03

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $1.26K
Potential payout: $3.15K
Potential profit: $1.89K
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $62.9

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $680.86
Potential payout: $2.57K
Potential profit: $1.89K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $39.24

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $2.2K
Potential profit: $2.2K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$482.87

Yes position

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $774.64
Potential payout: $1.91K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$141.91

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.59K
Potential profit: $1.59K
User PnL: -$991.1

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $1.36K
User PnL: -$910.16

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $1.27K
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $57.02
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $243.89

No position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $432.59
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $573.43
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $10.06

No position

Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $594.09
Potential payout: $632.01
Potential profit: $37.92
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $88.48

No position

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $110.6
Potential payout: $280
Potential profit: $169.4
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $32.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.32K

Yes position

Trump wins every swing state?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.5K

Yes position

Will J. D. Vance win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?

Ends May 3, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.78K

Yes position

[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Sep 10, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.94K

Yes position

Will Kane sign for Bayern Munich?

Ends Sep 1, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.26K

No position

Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?

Ends Jun 9, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.27K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.67K

No position

zkSync airdrop by April?

Ends Apr 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43K

Yes position

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25K

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley drop out in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22K

No position

Will Matt Gaetz be expelled from Congress before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.64K

Yes position

Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through 2022?

Ends Jan 1, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.53K

Yes position

Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through June 30, 2023?

Ends Jun 30, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.29K

Yes position

ETH above $1,850 on April 5?

Ends Apr 4, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.48K

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35K

Yes position

Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5%

Ends Jan 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25K

Yes position

Will the Twitter home button still be DOGE on Wednesday?

Ends Apr 5, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.12K

Yes position

ETH above $1,800 on April 26?

Ends Apr 25, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

Yes position

Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?

Ends May 28, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98K

No position

Will NATO expand in 2022?

Ends Jan 1, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.97K

No position

Biden drops out by July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.93K

Yes position

Bitcoin all time high in Q1?

Ends Mar 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 98.7% 5,592.24 shares
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 1.1% 68,405.73 shares
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

No 16% 3,941 shares
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

No 14% 60.64 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 11.9% 17,116 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 13% 500 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 13% 12,148.16 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 13% 59.99 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 12.2% 215 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 36.8% 210 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 39.1% 251.92 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

No 39.1% 23.52 shares