0x718e49AE88388d304183Fc9B21bB9a16b210f217-1772719687479

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.31
Potential profit: $22.31
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.31
Potential profit: $22.31
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.31
Potential profit: $22.31
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.31
Potential profit: $22.31
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.31
Potential profit: $22.31
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.31
Potential profit: $22.31
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Microsoft have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.23
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54
Potential profit: $3.54
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54
Potential profit: $3.54
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54
Potential profit: $3.54
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54
Potential profit: $3.54
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54
Potential profit: $3.54
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54
Potential profit: $3.54
User PnL: -$0.32

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $15.24

No position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 33%
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $4.07

No position

Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $3.7

Yes position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 24.1%
Multiplier: 4.15x
User PnL: $2.83

No position

Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $1.78

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.68

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 70%
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $1.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 3?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.45

Yes position

Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 4?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?