Polymarket Trader

George3d6

0x452223c6b4752917b70020be7826f919a7ea20c5

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.43K
Realized PnL: $4.42K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $3.43K
Potential payout: $3.63K
Potential profit: $199.84
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $34.13

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $2.4K
User PnL: -$540

Yes position

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.53K
Potential profit: $1.53K
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.33K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.13K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in September 2025?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
User PnL: -$170

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $992.69
Potential profit: $992.69
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $916.87
Potential profit: $916.87
User PnL: -$175.48

Yes position

Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $724.63
Potential profit: $724.63
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $714.29
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $672.73
Potential profit: $672.73
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $672.12
Potential profit: $672.12
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $631.6
Potential profit: $631.6
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $631.29
Potential profit: $631.29
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $619.62
Potential profit: $619.62
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $578.18
Potential profit: $578.18
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $554.64
Potential profit: $554.64
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $455.45
Potential profit: $455.45
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $432.31
Potential profit: $432.31
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in September 2025?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $341.67
Potential profit: $341.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $312.5
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $221.34
Potential profit: $221.34
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $144.29
Potential profit: $144.29
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $436.37

Yes position

Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?

Ends Jun 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $378.62

No position

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.24

Yes position

Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $289.22

Yes position

1,300+ Measles cases in U.S. before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $282.24

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $271.99

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $234.37

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $153.12

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $146.48

Yes position

Will there be more than 5 million Ukrainian refugees by April 30, 2022?

Ends Apr 30, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.79

Yes position

Will a barrel of crude oil close at $100 or more on May 4, 2022?

Ends May 4, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.34

No position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.75

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $76.64

Yes position

Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $105 or more on April 15, 2022?

Ends Apr 15, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.41

Yes position

Will Brittney Griner return to the U.S. by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.32

No position

Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by December 31, 2022?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.27

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.78

No position

ICC issues an arrest warrant for Yahya Sinwar?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.82

No position

Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.27

No position

Biden drops out of presidential race?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.73

No position

Will Ukraine become a European Union candidate country by July 31st?

Ends Jul 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 878876.52x
User PnL: $28.88

Yes position

Will Ethereum's (ETH) price have a 10% or more daily change on any day in May 2022?

Ends May 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.15

Yes position

Will Hugo Duminil-Copin win the 2022 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 14, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.07

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

No 95% 136.39 shares
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Yes 5.1% 2,528.34 shares
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

No 94.3% 286.23 shares
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

No 93.2% 2,146.15 shares
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

No 93.9% 1,064.77 shares
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Yes 9.3% 2,153.34 shares
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Yes 8% 375 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

No 99.5% 3,517.46 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

No 67% 3,517.46 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 10% 4,055.81 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

No 71% 2,727.27 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Yes 66% 14.92 shares