balancedpreset

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $96.09
Potential payout: $112.39
Potential profit: $16.3
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $3.09

Yes position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.76
Potential profit: $101.76
User PnL: -$50.88

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $75.45
Potential payout: $88.25
Potential profit: $12.8
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.48
Potential profit: $76.48
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $58.03
Potential payout: $61.41
Potential profit: $3.38
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $5.03

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $56.8
Potential payout: $60.55
Potential profit: $3.75
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $6.8

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 86.4%
Current value: $49.92
Potential payout: $57.77
Potential profit: $7.86
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $29.49
Potential payout: $52.2
Potential profit: $22.71
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$6.51

No position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $45.74
Potential payout: $51.69
Potential profit: $5.94
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.26

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $33.45
Potential payout: $47.11
Potential profit: $13.66
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$1.55

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $37.35
Potential payout: $43.69
Potential profit: $6.33
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $38.09
Potential payout: $42.09
Potential profit: $4
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $28.71
Potential payout: $32.81
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.71

No position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $20.95
Potential payout: $27.94
Potential profit: $6.98
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.91
Potential profit: $27.91
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $21.76
Potential payout: $26.7
Potential profit: $4.94
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $22.85
Potential payout: $26.27
Potential profit: $3.42
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.42
Potential profit: $25.42
User PnL: -$18

No position

Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.93
Potential profit: $22.93
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $18.32
Potential payout: $21.18
Potential profit: $2.86
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $14.28
Potential payout: $16.8
Potential profit: $2.52
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $12.1
Potential payout: $15.82
Potential profit: $3.72
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.9

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $13.38
Potential payout: $15.12
Potential profit: $1.74
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Over $45M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.62

No position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.67

No position

Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.88

No position

Over $60M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.51

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.2

No position

Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.68

No position

Over $50M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.66

No position

Laso Finance FDV above $10M one day after launch

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.46

No position

Laso Finance FDV above $12M one day after launch

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

Yes position

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.64

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

No position

Laso Finance FDV above $15M one day after launch

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.48

No position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.17

No position

Over $70M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19

Yes position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09

No position

Over $30M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?